国际能源署发布报告显示，能源服务需求将持续?

中国经济网版权所有 中国经济网新媒体矩阵 网络广播视听节目许可证（0107190）（京ICP040090） 近日，国际能源署发布《世界能源展望2025》报告，强调未来几十年，全球能源服务尤其是电力的需求将持续增长，包括交通、供暖、制冷、照明以及其他家庭和工业用途的能源需求。与此同时，数据和智力相关服务所需的能源供应也将增加。 Electricity is the lifeblood of contemporary industry and the digital economy. Currently, electricity accounts for only 20% of global terminal energy consumption, but it supports more than 40% of globalof the economy and the basic energy security for most families. In the foreseeable future, the growth rate of global electricity demand will be higher than the growth rate of total energy消耗。这在当前全球能源投资中得到了明显体现，供电和终端电气化投资占全球能源投资总额的50%。国际能源署近年来的评估不断强调电力在全球经济中日益增长的重要性。 Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, pointed out that, unlike the trend of the past 10 years, the growth of electricity consumption is no longer limited to emerging and developing economies. The rapid growth in electricity demand brought about by data centers and artificial intelligence has significantly increased demandelectricity consumption in developed economies around the world. Global data center investment is expected to reach US $ 580 billion in 2025, surpassing US $ 540 billion in global oil supply investment, reflecting profound changes in the global economic landscape. The report points out that the main energy security in the electricity era lies in the promotion of grid construction, energy storage facilities and other flexible resource allocation in the electricity system.然而，大多数国家在这些联系的发展方面仍然落后。 Since 2015, global investment in power generation has climbed nearly 70%, but annual investment in electricity grids has grown at less than half that rate. The report shows that the growth rate of renewable energy, led by photovoltaics, is ahead of othersmain source of energy.到2035年，全球能源消费增长的80%将发生在太阳辐射质量较高的地区。与此同时，全球核电产业正在加速复苏。 After more than 20 years of stagnation, it is predicted that the global installed nuclear capacity will achieve at least one-third growth by 2035. At the same time, investment in new designs such as traditional large-scale nuclear power plants and small modular reactors will maintain dual 成长。 The report predicts that the global supply of oil and gas will be relatively abundant in the short term, and that oil prices will stabilize in the range of US $ 60 to US $ 65. As new natural gas export projects are gradually put into production, the contradiction between supply at demand in the natural gas market is also easing.但近期国际油气市场的平衡仍面临地缘政治风险的考验。如果全球能源转型政策放慢或油气价格下降刺激需求增长，现有的缓冲空间可能会迅速缩小。 The report points out that the final investment decisions for new LNG projects around the world will increase by 2025. It is expected that by 2030, new LNG export facilities with an annual capacity of approximately 300 billion cubic meters will be implemented, and the global supply of LNG will increase by 50%. Although natural gas demand is expected, however, such a significant increase in LNG production capacity may lead to oversupply in the market.有趣的是，报告预测石油和天然气将继续在未来能源发展中发挥重要作用。在目前的政策条件下，石油和天然气的需求要到2050年才会达到峰值，石油仍将是主要燃料。 While the growth in demand for oil and natural gas from developed economies is slowing, emerging economies represented by India and Southeast Asia, along with developing countries in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, will contribute most of the increase in global demand for oil and natural gas in the next few years and may gradually reshape the international energy market pattern. The report points out that with changes in the international energy market and the turmoil of the international political landscape, in addition to traditional energy security risks such as suplay oil and gas, vulnerabilities in other major mineral resource areas are particularly significant.对此，比罗尔表示，回顾近几十年来能源发展历史，从来没有像现在这样同时面临来自如此多燃料和技术的能源安全压力。 （每日经济新闻记者 王宝坤）